A reality check on Iraq

Onpoint radio, from public radio station WBUR at Boston University, aired an incredulous segment about the state of affairs in Iraq and what the Bush administration is planning to do in the next few months (troop increases). Audio is available via this link:

mms://realserver.bu.edu:554/w/b/wbur/onpoint/2007/01/op_0123a.wma

My take on this "final" push to win in Iraq is simple: it won't succeed. Success implies that we can eliminate, or at least, neutralize an enemy. The problem with the war in Iraq is simply that the enemy consists of a large percentage of the Iraqi population, and thus are embedded within the deepest threads of Iraqi life. How are such people going to be eliminated or neutralized? Every time we kill 30 insurgents, another 300 are waiting in the wings. Every time we secure a neighborhood, chaos and mayhem ensues as soon as we leave to secure some other hot spot.

Let's say we send enough troops to secure every hot spot in Iraq, and keep them in those hot spots long enough to ensure it will remain secure long after we leave.

There are two fatal flaws with such delusional thinking:

1) We aren't going to send enough troops to secure every hot spot in Iraq. We're increasing the troop count from ~120,000 to ~150,000. I believe (based on several opinions I've heard/read from former/current generals talking to the media) it would take about 500,000 troops to secure the entire nation.

2) Even if we did secure every hot spot - the hot spots are pretty much guaranteed to re-ignite as soon as we leave, no matter how long we stay. This is simply because the hot spots are as much about centruries-old shiite/sunni hatred and violence as it is about US presence in Iraq. By going into a hot spot and securing the area, we only prevent people from shooting each other and blowing up each other, but in no way do we resolve the underlying issues that cause them to shoot each other and blow themselves up. Hence, as soon as we leave, those underlying issues are still there, waiting for a chance to be expressed in the form of more bloodshed and civil war.

I challenge anyone to prove me wrong on this.